Does the relative absence of formal signs, including in arms control, suggest that the underlying informal understanding has not really been struck, or needs renegotiating? Neither one of these facts of international life needs to rule out the other. 6,704 New Directions in Strategic Thinking jobs available on Indeed.com. My final point here is that the idea of an adverse partnership can do more than tell us a good deal about the US–Soviet strategic interaction during the Cold War. Given my argument that we often exaggerate the competitiveness of Cold War relations in comparison to our perception of today’s Great Power picture, and my corresponding view that there is more continuity than we are often led to believe between the Cold War and post–Cold War worlds, you might think my answer to this is a resoundingly positive one. If the extent and quality of the China–US adverse partnership affects the rest of us, what does this mean in reverse? This does not mean that they cannot have such an understanding. 9 See Hedley Bull, ‘The great irresponsibles? This economist was Thomas Schelling, who argued that it was best to characterise the US–Soviet bilateral strategic interaction as a non-zero-sum bargaining relationship. 10 John Lewis Gaddis, ‘The long peace: Elements of stability in the post-war international system’, International Security 10, no. Despite all of their economic interactions, I am just not sure how much Washington and Beijing both believe that they must see each other as partners as well as competitors in their security interactions in Asia today. In a 1973 essay, Shulman argues that a ‘cooperative side of the economic relationship’ was ‘reflected in the massive Soviet effort to expand its imports of grain, technology and consumer goods, and to develop Western markets for Soviet goods to pay for these imports in the future’.12 But it would be an entirely different step for us to assert that the Russians and Americans could always fall back on their common economic interests when the going got tough. 17 For one significant depiction of their other than zero-sum relationship, see Rosemary Foot, ‘China and the United States: Between cold and warm peace’, Survival 51, no. A number of these themes had been explored by Schelling, including in T.C. In order to understand what the strategic framework looks like in action, you need to dissect it. As for the first question, an adverse partnership is pretty much what its two component words in combination suggest it to be. Had it not been for the encouragement from Strategic & Defence Studies Centre (SDSC) academics who had taught me here in Canberra, I expect I would have had little chance of working in London with Lawrence Freedman, whose enthusiasm for the history of strategic ideas continues to be a major inspiration to me. There is enough evidence to suggest that China and the United States wish to avoid war in their relations and to keep any sabres rattling rather than brandished in an actual engagement. +61 2 6125 5111 One wonders whether the adverse partnership was akin to what Hedley Bull once said about Schelling’s tacit bargains. Old wine in new bottles? This raises a further question. When I ask my undergraduate students for their first political memory, for some of them it is 9/11. This was the strategic nuclear balance between the United States and the Soviet Union and, in our case, there was a particular focus on the development of US nuclear strategy. Managers of successful businesses do more than simply find a way to make money and sell stuff. The crucial point is that so much of the conflict management that did occur did not happen through carefully calibrated exchanges of actual violence––it was conflict management through coercion and the management of that coercive diplomacy itself. On this point, the interests of the two countries are not opposed, but on neither side is this fact yet fully appreciated.11. It helps us remember that, although these tensions were very serious and dangerous, they did not lead inevitably to war. Despite the common complaint, it’s not the result of making time for it. Arriving in Canberra in the early part of 1988, the penultimate year of the multi-decade struggle between East and West, I joined the smaller predecessor to today’s much larger master’s program. But to create a strategic plan, your team needs time to think big. The adverse partnership was an agreement between the elite powers, and it meant a willingness to subordinate the interests of even close allies if these got in the way. Sound strategic thinking doesn’t have to remain an abstract mystery only a few are able to realize. Threats of harm were more important than actual violence, and they were also more meaningful because actual violence could be so utterly devastating in the nuclear age.6 Once the Russians had broken the United States’ nuclear monopoly, a full-scale nuclear exchange would resemble the category of absolute war, which Clausewitz, writing more than a century beforehand, had suggested was philosophically necessary but which in normal circumstances was practically unreachable. 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